Our track record
Profit and ROI assume a flat 1-unit stake on every pick at the listed odds. Void picks return the stake and are left out of the hit rate.
This week's predictions
17 picks, 2 won, 3 lost, 11 still to play
Acca of the week
In progress- Valencia vs Villarreal 1-2Villarreal or draw1.36Won
- Crystal Palace vs NewcastleOver 2.5 goals1.57LIVE
- Manchester United vs BournemouthManchester United (draw no bet)1.57LIVE
3 legs, total odds 3.35
Saturday 24 October
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Roma have kept a clean sheet in all three of their away league games this season, winning two and drawing the other, and they've conceded just three goals in seven matches overall. Napoli have lost three of their last six. Taking Roma with draw no bet puts you on the in-form side, and you get your stake back if it finishes level.
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Valencia are still looking for their first home win, with two draws and three defeats from five games, and they've scored only twice at home while conceding nine. Villarreal or the draw covers you if the visitors are held, and a home win is the least likely result on current numbers.
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Chelsea are unbeaten in three home games and have scored 11 goals in them. Spurs have managed one goal in three away trips and are still without an away win. Our model rates a Chelsea win at around 64%, well above the roughly 51% the 1.85 price implies.
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Willem II have conceded 26 goals in nine games and have no win from four at home, losing three. Cambuur's away record is steadier at one win, two draws and one defeat. With draw no bet, you get your stake back if Cambuur only take a point.
Sunday 25 October
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Excelsior have scored 11 goals in five away games and lost only one of them, while Sittard have let in nine across four home matches. Excelsior's last two results were heavy defeats, which is why the confidence rating stays low, but at 2.00 with your stake returned on a draw, the price still looks generous.
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Inter's four home league games have produced 21 goals, and three of them had four or more. Fiorentina have conceded 17 in seven matches. Over 3.5 is a bigger ask, so the rating is cautious, but both teams' numbers point to a busy afternoon.
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Getafe haven't scored in four away games this season and have lost all of them, with just five league goals in nine matches. Athletic's home games have averaged just over two goals. Under 2.5 fits the way both sides have played so far.
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Feyenoord are unbeaten in nine league games and have won all five away from home, scoring 20 and conceding six. PSV are strong at home too, so double chance on Feyenoord covers a draw in a game that looks close to even.
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Atalanta have won three of their four home games, and those four matches produced 11 goals between them. Frosinone have conceded four in three away games. Four or more goals looks less likely than the 1.80 price suggests, so under 3.5 is the pick.
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All three of Crystal Palace's home games have gone over 2.5 goals, and Palace have conceded 17 in seven league matches. Newcastle have let in eight on their three away trips, so you can expect both defences to be stretched again.
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Hull are unbeaten in three home games and have conceded only twice, while Brentford have drawn all three of their away matches. At 2.05, Hull or the draw is a generous price given how often Brentford's trips have ended level.
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Bournemouth have lost two of their three away games and conceded nine goals on the road. United have drawn four of their last six, which is why draw no bet suits this one, since your stake comes back if they're held again.
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Celta have lost only two of nine league games and conceded just seven goals, and they've scored nine in five home matches. Betis have won two of four away, so this isn't a certainty, but Celta or the draw at 1.62 is backed by both the model and the market.
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Auxerre's seven league games have produced 28 goals, 17 of them conceded, and Le Mans have let in 15 in seven. Neither side has kept many clean sheets, so three or more goals looks the likelier finish.
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Rennes have scored 10 in four home games, and all four of Strasbourg's away matches have gone over 2.5, with 18 goals in total. At 2.10, the over 3.5 line carries more risk, so the confidence is lower, but both teams' recent games point to goals.
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Sunderland have scored once in three home games and lost four of their last six. Leeds have lost just once in seven league matches. Leeds draw no bet puts you on the steadier side, with your stake back if it ends level.
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Lecce have scored in two of their three home games but conceded eight there, and Juventus have conceded in two of three away matches. Both teams to score at 2.00 looks too long based on how these defences have played.
How this round went
Profit and ROI assume a flat 1-unit stake on every pick at the listed odds. Void picks return the stake and are left out of the hit rate.
All prediction rounds
- 20 Oct to 26 Oct 202617 picks ยท 2W 3L ยท 40%